ASEAN palm oil: Quick Note

Research evidence excerpt

ASEAN palm oil: Quick Note

Nomura | ASEAN palm oil 10 July 2026

to Agrinas would lead to a decline in overall yields in Indonesia. While Agrinas still expects

to meet its full-year FFB target of 5mn MT, we do not think this will be possible without an

increase in its land bank. Lower-than-expected volumes from Agrinas during a period of

increasing domestic consumption due to the B50 mandate should be a further tailwind for

CPO prices.

EU Lawmakers block move to strip soy biofuel of renewable status

According to an 8 July news article in Bloomberg (link), the European Parliament blocked

a Commission proposal to remove soy-based biofuels' renewable classification, which

would have phased out their contribution to EU renewable energy targets by 2030.

Lawmakers rejected the Commission's methodology, arguing it ignored that EU-grown soy

does not drive deforestation and would undermine the bloc's protein self-sufficiency plan.

The Commission had sought to classify soy as high-risk for indirect land-use change

(ILUC). Parliament raised no objection to palm oil retaining its high ILUC status — a

stance a WTO panel largely upheld in Malaysia's case, despite finding some deficiencies

— and urged the Commission to resubmit a revised proposal. Industry groups welcomed

the vote, noting the plan would have excluded soybean oil from national biofuel blending

mandates, with knock-on effects for transport-sector climate targets.

Our view: This move from the EU is another example of the group putting the interests of

its own members ahead of its environmental concerns. The EU’s decision to continue

using biofuels made from soybean oils should be positive for soybean oil prices. While we

think that the EU should have also removed palm oil from the high-risk ILUC designation,