Japan equity weekly (9 July 2026)

Research evidence excerpt

Japan equity weekly (9 July 2026)

Global Markets Research

Japan equity weekly (9 July 2026) 9 July 2026

EQUITY: JAPAN STRATEGY

Renewed concerns about Middle East? Focus now on Research Analysts

correcting AI/semiconductor skew Macro strategy

Tomochika Kitaoka - NSC

GPIF allocations underscore importance of rebalancing, we estimate tomochika.kitaoka@nomura.com

several hundred billion yen of opportunity losses in FY26, as in FY25 +81 3 6703 1815

Masaki Motomura - NSC

Renewed Middle East shock? We see moderate reversals this time around, with masaki.motomura@nomura.com

lessons from March having been learned +81 3 6703 1119

US President Donald Trump declared on 8 July that the ceasefire with Iran was over, Naoya Fuji - NSC

which prompted market attention to pivot back to geopolitical risks and away from the naoya.fuji@nomura.com

debate about AI and semiconductors that had been going on for several weeks. WTI front- +81 3 6703 1245

month futures rose above $76/bbl for a time, and Nikkei 225 futures fell below 66,000, but Momoko Nakada - NSC

then recovered above 67,000 as the rise in oil prices ran its course. On 8 July, US momoko.nakada@nomura.com

markets saw modest gains for energy and semiconductor stocks, albeit from a low start, +81 3 6703 1100

but UST yields rose and gold futures fell, indicating that investors are not shifting from

Tomoharu Kurosu - NSCequities into bonds and gold. One-minute incremental data for March onwards shows that tomoharu.kurosu@nomura.com

the Nikkei 225 has tended to decline by around 3,000 (4–5%) momentarily when WTI +81 3 6703 3875

futures rise by $10/bbl. We estimate that every $10/bbl rise in oil prices crimps TOPIX

Japan quantitative researchEPS by 1.00–1.25%, and think that initial excessive reactions in share price index futures