Economic Insights: US: June CPI Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Economic Insights: US: June CPI Preview

Global Markets Research

9 July 2026Economic Insights

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

US: June CPI Preview North America Economics

Aichi Amemiya - NSI

• We expect core CPI inflation remained relatively stable at 0.215% m-o-m in June, after aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

a 0.208% advance in May. +1 212 667 9347

• The waning impact from tariffs and lower used vehicle prices likely kept m-o-m core Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

goods inflation in contractionary territory. jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

• We expect suprecore CPI inflation accelerated to0.373% m-o-m in June, following a +1 212 667 9637

0.273% advance in May. A positive impact from higher lodging-away-from-home Ruchir Sharma - NSI

prices appears to have been partially offset by slower increases in airline fares and ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

medical care service prices. +1 212 667 9186

• Inflation of rent-related components likely reverted lower following an upside surprise

in May.

• We expect CPI energy prices declined by 5.2% m-o-m in June, led by falling gasoline

prices. This likely pushed down headline CPI inflation to -0.203% m-o-m.

• Based on our forecast for CPI and PPI, June core PCE inflation likely moderated to

0.271% m-o-m in June (or 3.3% annualized) after a 0.320% advance in May.

• While June core PCE inflation likely remained above an annual rate of 2%, we expect

the anticipated negative headline inflation and upcoming methodological changes to

PCE prices will keep the Fed patient on rate hikes at the July FOMC meeting.

Fig. 1: We expect core CPI inflation remained stable at 0.215% m-o-m in June from 0.208% m-o-m in May

Monthly CPI forecast

Units Apr May Jun

Actual Actual Nomura Consensus*

Consumer prices % m-o-m 0.64 0.47 -0.203 -0.1