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Asia‘s El Niño playbook: Eight lessons from 25 years of shocks: Why oil prices, irrigation and policy can sometimes matter more than rainfall.

Published: 2026-07-09Institution: NomuraPages: 95Original language: EnglishEvidence page: 1

Research evidence excerpt

Asia‘s El Niño playbook: Eight lessons from 25 years of shocks: Why oil prices, irrigation and policy can sometimes matter more than rainfall.

Global Markets Research

10 July 2026Asia Economic Monthly

Economics - ASEAN/Asia Pacific/Asia ex-Japan

Research AnalystsAsia's El Niño playbook: Eight lessons from 25

Asia Economicsyears of shocks

Sonal Varma - NSL

Why oil prices, irrigation and policy can sometimes matter more than rainfall. sonal.varma@nomura.com

+65 6433 6527

Ting Lu - NIHK

ting.lu@nomura.com

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Euben Paracuelles - NSL Has Asia’s chip export cycle peaked?

euben.paracuelles@nomura.com

•Yes •No •Can'tsay +65 6433 6956

Aurodeep Nandi - NFASL

aurodeep.nandi@nomura.com

Forecast table 2 +91 22 4037 4087

Asia letter 3

Jeong Woo Park - NSL Asia's El Niño playbook: Eight lessons from 25 years of shocks 3

jeongwoo.park@nomura.com

Outlooks 2026-27 12 +65 6433 6197

Australia: Below trend 12

Japan Economics China: A K-shaped economy is materializing 13

Hong Kong: Trade is benefiting notably from the global AI supercycle 14 Kyohei Morita - NSC

kyohei.morita@nomura.com India: Improvement in macro conditions 15

+81 3 6703 1395

Indonesia: Not out of the woods 16

Japan: A renewed focus on the relationship between the government... 17 Australia Economics

Korea: We see a July hike as highly likely 18 Andrew Ticehurst - NAL

Malaysia: Elections won’t derail growth 19 andrew.ticehurst@nomura.com

Philippines: Peaking CPI inflation but not core 20 +61 2 8062 8611

Singapore: Staying strong 21

Taiwan: Rate hikes are still on the cards 22

Thailand: Watch the twin deficits 23

Monthly calendar 24

Asia views 25

Asia: Is the export upcycle broadening beyond tech? 25

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