Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group

Research evidence excerpt

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group

Global Markets Research

10 July 2026Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group

8316.T 8316 JP ADR:SMFG US / EQUITY: JAPAN BANKS

Rating

We retain our Buy rating; top pick within sector Remains Buy

Target price

Loan-deposit operations in Japan continue to perform well; shareholder Increased from 6,500 JPY 8,400

returns also improving

Closing price JPY 6,816We retain our Buy rating, view stock as top pick within the sector 9 July 2026

We update our earnings forecasts for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) based on

Implied upside +23.2%our follow-up research after 26/3 results were announced and subsequent financial market

conditions. We reiterate our Buy rating and position the stock as our top pick within the

sector. We raise our target price from ¥6,500 to ¥8,400, as we have revised our longer-

term forecasts in a broadly upward direction after 26/3 results showed strong performance

Relative performance chartin customer-facing operations, including loan-deposit operations in Japan.

Earnings outlook

Our 27/3 forecast for profits attributable to owners of the parent is higher than guidance for

¥1.7trn. Loan and deposit balances were strong through end-26/3, with loans outstanding

to large Japanese companies up 17% y-y at end-26/3, and we expect this to positively

impact term-average balances in 27/3. The corporate & investment banking segment,

which includes commission income, has been performing solidly also. Based on the

above, we see good prospects for earnings to beat guidance. Looking ahead to 28/3 and

beyond, we expect strong earnings from existing businesses and strict overhead ratio

management to contribute to earnings, along with improved profitability in Asia and the