AEON Financial Service (8570): Earnings model update

Research evidence excerpt

AEON Financial Service (8570): Earnings model update

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

13 July 2026

AEON Financial Service (8570) Underweight

8570.T, 8570 JP

Earnings model update Price (10 Jul 26):¥1,518

▼Price Target (Dec-27):¥1,200

Prior (Dec-26):¥1,250

We update our earnings forecasts to reflect progress through 1Q FY2026. We trim

our price target from ¥1,250 to ¥1,200, extend the time horizon to December 2027 Japan Equity Research

(previously December 2026), and maintain our Underweight rating. We expect Insurance, Securities, Diversified

FY2026 operating profit to beat full-year guidance of ¥45 billion, mainly due to Financials

outperformance in the domestic segment, but we make only minor revisions to our AC Koki Sato

FY2027 and FY2028 forecasts. The company still faces challenges regarding the (81-3) 6736-8609

pace of member acquisition and growth in shopping transaction volume in Japan, koki.sato@jpmorgan.com

as well as the difficult credit environment in Thailand. We note upside risks for Yuka Azami

AEON Financial Service from a possible 100% acquisition by parent company (81-3) 6736-8619

AEON (8267, covered by Dairo Murata) or additional purchases of its shares by yuka.azami@jpmorgan.com

specific activist investors, but we maintain our view that the stock looks JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

overvalued from the standpoint of fundamentals.

Key Changes (FYE Feb)

• Revisions to earnings forecasts: We now expect FY2026 operating profit to Prev Cur Δ

reach ¥52.5 billion, beating guidance of ¥45 billion. Although we had already Adj. EPS - 27E (¥) 79.19 98.59 24.5%

viewed guidance as conservative, we now raise our forecasts to reflect Adj. EPS - 28E (¥) 123.09 118.85 -3.4%

stronger-than-expected profit in the domestic segment in 1Q and a prospective