INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JULY 13, 2026

20 SECONDS:

• Rising tensions in the Middle East over the weekend, with renewed US/Iran strikes. Market returns

to the Escalation playbook, with Oil & Rates trading higher and Equities lower (EU < US, but Tech

weakness weighing on APAC & NDX).

• Positioning Intel does not see the MOMO reset as complete yet. Given the peak-trough sell-off, the

sharp drawdown might be over but there could be continued choppiness in more extremely

positioned pockets until we get to the heart of earnings season. Broader positioning in equities

(aside from some pockets of Asia) appears to be fairly neutral and markets could remain resilient

in the near term as growth environment & strong earnings persist.

• Incoming macro data through May tell a constructive story, with little sign of any softening into

midyear (Europe’s improving macro momentum is also noteworthy).

• JPM Research: Q2 Earnings - despite the spike in geopolitical uncertainty in Q2, it is encouraging

that 2026 EPS projections kept moving higher across all regions, and not solely the result of IT

and Energy, with the majority of sectors in MSCI AC World seeing net upgrades ytd.

• Main catalysts THIS WEEK: China Trade, GDP, Retail Sales, Property Prices, IP, FAI. US CPI,

Retail Sales. Fed Chair Warsh testifies. US Banks, NFLX, ASML & TSMC earnings.

MKT INTEL VIEWS: Rising tensions in the Middle East over the weekend, with renewed US/Iran strikes.

Market returns to the Escalation playbook, with Oil & Rates trading higher and Equities lower (EU < US, but

Tech weakness weighing on APAC & NDX). Our Center for Geopolitics sees this latest round of tit-for-tat

strikes as a messy middle ground - characterized by sporadic but bounded use of force - as the new normal