Europe, Middle East and Africa Emerging Markets Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

Europe, Middle East and Africa Emerging Markets Weekly

(44-20) 3493-3412

still the signal is clear. In contrast, the CNB is still likely to hike the policy rate again gbolahan.taiwo@jpmorgan.com

in August to 4%. The central bank is dealing not just with long-lasting CPI J.P. Morgan Securities plc

overshoot, but also solid demand, fast wage growth (near 8%oya in the private Francesco Arcangeli

sector) and a booming credit expansion which in our view indicate the current level (44-20) 3493-0971

francesco.arcangeli@jpmorgan.com

of rates is not sufficiently restrictive. Romania’s June inflation is not out yet, but J.P. Morgan Securities plc

a slowing in headline (not in core) is likely on food. However, with core inflation Fatih Akcelik

above 8%oya now and likely to decline only in the 5% area in the fall, NBR has (44 20) 3493 7285

no choice but to stay on hold at 6.50% for an extended period. We see them starting fatih.akcelik@jpmorgan.com

to cut in May 2027 once headline inflation goes firmly below 5%. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Irshaad Mayet

Israel: The FX intervention continues (27-11) 507-0418

irshaad.mayet@jpmorgan.com

Although the BoI’s policy meeting was the central event of last week, the signal on JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Johannesburg

another aspect of the central bank’s policy — the FX intervention — was no less Branch

important. First, the data for June showed that the BoI purchased $1.0bn on the Khamza Sharifzoda

open market, following $0.8bn bought in May. Second, it appears that the party line (44 20) 3493-3571

on the FX intervention has changed — if in previous communications about khamza.sharifzoda@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

interventions the emphasis was made on the exceptional nature of this instrument