Africa Edge

Research evidence excerpt

Africa Edge

Gbolahan S Taiwo (44-20) 3493-3412 Africa Economic Research J P M O R G A N

gbolahan.taiwo@jpmorgan.com Africa Edge

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 13 July 2026

Francesco Arcangeli (44-20) 3493-0971

francesco.arcangeli@jpmorgan.com

therefore expect the CBE to wait for clearer, sustained disin- authorities reduce fuel subsidy costs, we see limited pass-

flation and a more stable risk backdrop before cutting; our through and no change to the broader disinflation trajectory.

base case is for the next cut in April 2027 (when inflation We therefore maintain our call for 300bp of cumulative eas-

could be around 11%oya). For 2027, we forecast 500bp of ing in 2H (100bp at each of the next three policy meetings).

cumulative deposit-rate cuts, taking the deposit rate to 14%

by end-2027. Figure 4: Angola inflation and policy rate

%

See full report here 35 Headline Policy rate

International reserves increased in June 25

Francesco Arcangeli

Official FX reserves recorded a USD 1.9bn increase in June, 5

a relatively unusual development for CBE reserves, as posi- 0

tive balance of payments flows are typically reflected in high- 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

er net foreign assets in the banking sector rather than in offi- Source: HCP, BNA, J.P. Morgan

cial FX reserves. The increase is even more notable when

Suez Canal monitorexcluding gold, with FX reserves rising by USD 3.9bn, as

declining gold prices acted as a drag on headline reserves. Francesco Arcangeli

While the month recorded large inflows into the local securi-

ties market, we believe that the extension and expansion of The disruption affecting the Red Sea route continues, with

the swap line with the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) played transit volumes down about 51.7% compared to pre-Decem-