Europe Edge: Central Asia and the Caucasus: A Tale of Remittances

Research evidence excerpt

Europe Edge: Central Asia and the Caucasus: A Tale of Remittances

Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc (44 20) 7742-2466 Fatih Akcelik (44 20) 3493 7285 Europe Economic Research J P M O R G A Nnicolaie.alexandru@jpmorgan.com fatih.akcelik@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 13 July 2026

Anatoliy A Shal (971) 4561-2005 Khamza Sharifzoda (44 20) 3493-3571

anatoliy.a.shal@jpmorgan.com khamza.sharifzoda@jpmorgan.com

Europe Edge In the South Caucasus, the reliance on remittances has

declined for all three countries (Figure 2), especially in the

This is an extract from the EM Edge Data Watch. For the full case of Georgia and Armenia where you have the expansion

publication and thematic essay please use this link of the IT sectors, which we highlighted before. Unlike for

migrants from Central Asia, the majority of Georgian season-

• Georgia: June headline CPI is at 5.8% oya al workers take up employment opportunities in Europe,

• Kazakhstan: services inflation remains sticky thanks to the Schengen visa-free regime, which is in place.

For Armenia, the Russian economy remains the dominant

• Tajikistan: current account surplus at 23% of GDP driver; however, this could also change, as Armenia has been

• Uzbekistan: inflation bounces, FX reserves drop making progress on negotiating the Schengen visa-free

• Ukraine: sharp drop in inflation exclusively on food regime too.

• Ukraine: NBU’s gross FX reserves post a large jump Figure 1: Remittance inflows in Tajikistan

USD, bn

Central Asia and the Caucasus: A Tale of 10.0 Personal transfers

Remittances

8.0

Compensation of employees

All countries in Central Asia recorded a notable decline in

6.0

1Q26 remittance data relative to 4Q, with year-over-year

growth slowing sharply across the board, except for Armenia. 4.0