Consumer Finance 2Q26 Preview: Nothing Is Easy: Rates Turn Hawkish as Conflict Reignites - Establishing 2027 PTs; Upgrading AXP to OW, Rest Unchanged

Research evidence excerpt

Consumer Finance 2Q26 Preview: Nothing Is Easy: Rates Turn Hawkish as Conflict Reignites - Establishing 2027 PTs; Upgrading AXP to OW, Rest Unchanged

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

13 July 2026

Consumer Finance 2Q26 Preview

Nothing Is Easy: Rates Turn Hawkish as Conflict

Reignites - Establishing 2027 PTs; Upgrading AXP to

OW, Rest Unchanged

The "pause, not peace" dynamic we contemplated in 1Q has re-emerged. The 60- Consumer Finance

ACday U.S./Iran memorandum of understanding signed on June 18th, which had Richard Shane

reopened the Strait of Hormuz and suspended hostilities, has broken down roughly (1-415) 315-6701

midway through, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire "over" in early July richard.b.shane@jpmorgan.com

following renewed strikes. While indirect talks continue via Qatari and Pakistani Hong Zhang

mediators, the situation is precarious, and the risk of further escalation is elevated. (1-212) 622-6416

As in 1Q26, the war scenario is playing out again, reintroducing the risk of an hongliang.zhang@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

energy price spike that would squeeze lower- and middle-income consumers most

acutely. We also caution that prices for many consumer goods could remain

elevated for longer than expected as any price change could lag the decline in The authors wish to thank Prakhar Rai, of

underlying oil prices. We continue to believe the full impact of these geopolitical the J.P. Morgan Global Research Center,

and macro shocks on the real economy has yet to be realized, and against this

for contributions to this report.

backdrop, selectivity and discipline remain paramount across our coverage.

Two forces compound the geopolitical risk. First, the labor market is cooling rather