Canada: June Employment Recap

Research evidence excerpt

Canada: June Employment Recap

Global Markets Research

10 July 2026First Insights

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

Canada: June Employment Recap North America Economics

Ruchir Sharma - NSI

• Employment rose 18.2k in June from 87.8k in May. The composition was less ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

favorable, as full-time employment was broadly flat while part-time employment rose +1 212 667 9186

17.5k.

• Employment in accommodation and food services increased for the third consecutive

month, likely reflecting some boost from the ongoing FIFA World Cup. Meanwhile,

tariff-related uncertainty continued to weigh on manufacturing employment.

• The unemployment rate edged down to 6.5% from 6.6%, as employment growth

outpaced labor force growth. Youth unemployment improved mainly due to part-time

employment, while long-term unemployment remained elevated.

• Overall, stronger job gains over the past two months should somewhat allay the BoC’s

concerns about a sharp labor market deterioration. That said, persistent slack is likely

to keep the Bank on hold and policy accommodative through 2026.

Weakness under the hood

Employment rose 18.2k in June (Consensus: 10.0k), following an 87.8k gain in May.

However, composition was weak, with gains driven almost entirely by part-time

employment, while full-time employment was broadly unchanged (Fig.1). The

employment rate edged higher but remained well below historical averages, highlighting

subdued labor demand.

Fig. 1: Employment rose in June for the second consecutive Fig. 2: Accommodation and food services employment rose for

month, but gains were driven almost entirely by part-time the third consecutive month, likely due to a temporary boost

employment from the FIFA World Cup, pushing 3m average job gains to its