Cosmetics & Personal Care / Paper & Packaging Sector (Japan): El Niño: Monitoring impact on domestic demand and raw material prices

Research evidence excerpt

Cosmetics & Personal Care / Paper & Packaging Sector (Japan): El Niño: Monitoring impact on domestic demand and raw material prices

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

13 July 2026

Cosmetics & Personal Care /

Paper & Packaging Sector (Japan)

El Niño: Monitoring impact on domestic demand and

raw material prices

On July 3, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned that the El Niño Japan Equity Research

effect would intensify rapidly over the coming months, increasing the risk of

Cosmetics and Personal Care /

extreme weather events. On July 10, the Japan Meteorological Agency also Paper and Packaging

announced that the El Niño event that began in spring 2026 would continue through AC Akiko Kuwahara

autumn. On June 23, the Japan Meteorological Agency had already forecast that

(81-3) 6736-8617

the average temperature in Japan would be higher than normal in July-September akiko.kuwahara@jpmorgan.com

2026. We see no need to change our investment stance on the companies under our JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

coverage due to this weather-related risk, but we note the risk of a temporary impact

on earnings. In Japan, for example, extreme heat could affect fruit and vegetable

crops, which may temporarily weaken demand for corrugated board used in

packaging. We also cannot rule out the possibility that fluctuations in palm oil and

pulp prices will affect raw material costs and overseas operations at the companies

under our coverage.

• Monitoring impact on demand from extreme heat in Japan: Historically,

El Niño has tended to bring cool summers to Japan due to reduced sunlight, but

the last strong El Niño in 2023 resulted in a severe heatwave. Due to the impact

of this heatwave on crops, demand for corrugated board used in packaging for