LatAm Oil & Gas: Volatility Returns: Refreshing Our Oil Sensitivity Guide

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Oil & Gas: Volatility Returns: Refreshing Our Oil Sensitivity Guide

esh military action in the region (here, here and

0.0x here) have reintroduced uncertainty around the recovery of regional oil flows,

lifting Brent volatility and pushing the geopolitical risk premium back into

focus. Having only just begun to price a normalization in supply conditions,

markets are now confronting a path to a durable resolution that remains far Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

from certain. JPM's base case assumes Brent averaging $85/bbl in 2026, Figure 10: FCF yield 2026 at base case

supported by a gradual recovery in supply routes and normalizing inventories. Base case at $85/bbl for 2026

Notably, even with the renewed geopolitical risk, Brent remains below our base 20.0%

case. With the conflict unresolved and regional flows a persistent source of 15.0%

10.0%

uncertainty, we see risk back on the radar, keeping volatility elevated. 5.0%

0.0%

• The best opportunities combine oil leverage with downside resilience. -5.0%

With geopolitical uncertainty continuing to drive oil price volatility, we believe -10.0%

-15.0%

investors should focus on companies that can both capture upside from a

sustained risk premium and preserve cash generation if prices normalize.

Under our framework, we still see Petrobras, PRIO, and Ecopetrol as the most

favorable exposures, pairing strong leverage to higher Brent with attractive Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

downside resilience. Assuming $80/bbl for the remainder of the year, we

estimate FCF yields of 17.8% for PRIO,12.3% for PBR, and 11.9% for EC,

versus 14.1%, 8.0%, and 9.7%, respectively, at $60/bbl for the rest of the year

(or avg $75/bbl 2026FY). Vista and YPF also offer meaningful leverage to a