US Economic Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Weekly

Global Markets Research

10 July 2026US Economic Weekly

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

The force awakens North America Economics

Aichi Amemiya - NSI

• We expect coreCPIinflationremainedrelativelystableat0.215%m-o-m in June aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

following a 0.208% advance in May. Core goods inflation remained negative in June, +1 212 667 9347

while supercore CPI accelerated. Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

• Overall, based on our CPI and PPI forecast, core PCE inflation likely moderated +1 212 667 9637

slightly to 0.271% m-o-m from 0.320% in May, leaving y-o-y inflation at 3.4%, well

Ruchir Sharma - NSI above the Fed’s target. However, considering the upcoming methodology changes to

ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

certain PCE prices, core PCE inflation is unlikely to accelerate more than the median +1 212 667 9186

SEP forecast implies.

• The Fedannouncedthemembersoffivetaskforces. We think that the choice of

members does not signal any clear bias in terms of the future path of monetary policy.

Future work by the task forces will likely be evolutionary as opposed to revolutionary.

Another benign reading of core CPI inflation is expected

We expect coreCPIinflationremainedrelativelystableat0.215%m-o-m in June after

having risen by 0.208% in May and 0.376% in April (Fig.1).

The impact from tariffs has been waning, and used vehicle prices declined. The global

shortage of semiconductors did not appear to exert significant upward pressures on

consumer electronics prices in the month. As a result, we expect a second consecutive

decline in CPI core goods prices (Fig.2).

Fig. 1: We expect core CPI inflation remained relatively stable Fig. 2: Core goods inflation likely remained negative in June,