Urea re-gains, SE-Asia Potash Corrects, Phosphate Stable; Oilseed Crush Mixed

Research evidence excerpt

Urea re-gains, SE-Asia Potash Corrects, Phosphate Stable; Oilseed Crush Mixed

IdeaM6% below consensus estimates, respectively. In Brazil, Acelen Renovaveis and Bunge

were said to have signed a five-year agreement for the supply of 1.5M mt of certified

soy oil for Acelen's SAF/RD project in Bahia (300 kmt/year starting in 2029). The

contracted volume is believed to represent ~15% of Bunge’s domestic soy oil

production capacity and is expected to cover ~30% of the project's feedstock needs

while the other 60% has reportedly been secured through several UCO suppliers. In

Argentina, 2025/26 farmer sales were reported to have reached 40% of expected

soy production through the end of June, below the five-year average of 46% and last

year’s 50%. Separately, BAGE maintained its soy production estimate at 50.1 mmt,

while the Rosario Grain Exchange also held its forecast at 51.5 mmt. In Europe,

wheat markets turned their attention to potentially disrupted export flows

following reports that Russia and Ukraine had attacked each other's key grain export

hubs and that Russia had both temporarily halted shipping through the Don-Azov

canal (linking the Don River & the Sea of Azov) and the Kerch Strait (connecting the

Sea of Azov & the Black Sea).

Elsewhere in Agriculture, please see our recent deep dive report on Corteva's crop

chemical R&D pipeline. We believe growth expectations and implied valuation for

this business are too low ahead of the 4Q26 separation. For complete details,

please see: Corteva Inc.: New Corteva Growth Expectations Likely Too Low (28

May 2026)

Weekly Oilseed Crush Margin Recap: Global soy crush mostly lower with

softseed mixed. For additional details, please see both the bullet points below and