2Q26 EPS & 2026 Guide Well Ahead

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 EPS & 2026 Guide Well Ahead

Update

August 4, 2026 11:50 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMArcher Daniels Midland | North America Steven K Haynes, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26 EPS & 2026 Guide Well Steven.Haynes@morganstanley.comVincent Andrews

Vincent.Andrews@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3293

Ahead

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM.N, ADM UN)

Agricultural Products | United States of America

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Stock Rating Underweight

Weakens our thesis Meaningful upside Meaningful revision higher Industry View In-Line

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Price target $60.00

consensus EPS Shr price, close (Aug 3, 2026) $78.06

Mkt cap, curr (mm) $51,209

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research 52-Week Range $88.46-52.96

Key Takeaways

ADM Reports 2Q26 Adj. EPS of $1.84 (incl. ~$0.17/share of positive MTM impact)

vs. MSe $1.40 & Cons. $1.49.

Raises 2026 Adj. EPS Guide to $5.15-5.60 vs. MSe $4.57 & Cons. $4.82.

AS&O (Crushing/Ag Services) drove the beat, but Carb Solutions, Nutrition,

Other and the ETR also added to results.

RVO-driven crush strength + ~$100mm MTM benefit in AS&O; ethanol remains

strong while Nutrition was led by Flavors/Decatur recovery.

Capital allocation priority remains focused on organic investment (i.e., crush/

ethanol, precision fermentation, and natural colors).

We expect a positive response to results and updated 2026 outlook that were

ahead of expectations. Given the relative share price outperformance versus Bunge,

we thought ADM had a higher bar into the 2Q print – this morning's results likely

cleared that bar with an operating beat across all core segments in 2Q and a raise to

2026 guidance that's 12% above consensus at the midpoint (though perhaps less