Urea & Phosphate Up, Potash Stable; Oilseed Crush Mostly Lower

Research evidence excerpt

Urea & Phosphate Up, Potash Stable; Oilseed Crush Mostly Lower

Update

August 3, 2026 01:41 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMChemicals | North America Vincent Andrews

Equity Analyst

Urea & Phosphate Up, Potash Vincent.Andrews@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ +1 212 761-3293

Lisa H De Neve

Equity AnalystStable; Oilseed Crush Mostly Lisa.De.Neve@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0250

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCLower Steven K Haynes, CFA

Steven.Haynes@morganstanley.com

Turner W Hinrichs

Urea gains WoW in the light of new Indian tender, yet additional Chinese export Research Associate

Turner.Hinrichs@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1269

quota looms. India's RCF launched a fresh 1.7mT import tender last week requiring

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shipment by September 24th and offers due August 11th, which was anticipated by Ricardo Rezende, CFA

the market. This comes at a time where China is heard to set a second export quota Equity Analyst

Ricardo.Rezende@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-9886

of ~2.8mT for 2026, and accordingly market consensus is that China could

meaningfully participate in the Indian tender (i.e. ~1mT). US NoLa urea prices were + Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+

Julia Rizzo$10/st to $415-450/st fob for various barges in the earlier part of the week. Brazil

Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist

urea prices were +$28/t to $465-495/t cfr WoW with activity weighted to the first Julia.Rizzo@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6114

part of the week, as activity slowed post the announcement of the Indian tender, as

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buyers await price direction. Egypt urea prices were +$20/t to $555-570/t fob last Justin T Pellegrino

week on limited activity. Research Associate

Justin.Pellegrino@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4054