North America Metals & Mining: Sunday Morning Metals: 2Q Base Metals Preview; May Steel Apparent Consumption; Upcoming Into The Print Webcast (Jul-15)

Research evidence excerpt

North America Metals & Mining: Sunday Morning Metals: 2Q Base Metals Preview; May Steel Apparent Consumption; Upcoming Into The Print Webcast (Jul-15)

eading included a -6.8% drop in

commercial planning (339.3) and a 10.9% rise in institutional planning (188.1). Dodge’s

Associate Director of Forecasting said, “Data center activity continued to drive the Index, but its

pace moderated from the extraordinary levels seen in recent months and drove the DMI to pull

back over the month. Otherwise, planning activity accelerated across nearly every other sector.”

Our thoughts: While June’s results break the multi-month streak of M/M growth, the meaningful

Y/Y growth in both segments and 7.6% growth in commercial (ex-data centers) suggest

continued strong planning activity and pent-up demand.

Global investors further trimmed gold ETF exposure in June amid price

pullback, according to World Gold Council on July 8 (link). Gold-backed ETFs saw outflows

of nearly $9B, with all regions experiencing outflows (NA losing the most; -$5.5B), while YTD

flows stayed positive at $8B (but notably -$7.7B in NA). Net outflows resulted in weaker global

gold ETF AUM (-13% M/M) to $526B, and collective holdings fell ~2% to 4,047t. Trading

volumes fell 13% M/M to $373B/day, although OTC and exchange-traded contract volumes

remained well above 2025 average levels, indicating robust market liquidity. Additionally,

recent May data suggest Central Bank rotation toward gold, according to Mining.com on July

6 (link). Central banks bought 41t in May (China +10t), with China’s largest ETF now a gold fund

(90B RMB AUM). Our thoughts: While recent escalation in the Middle East has offered near-

term support for gold, JPM’s Commodity Research team (led by Greg Shearer) flag that rates-