Long Barclays: Turning up the Heat

Research evidence excerpt

Long Barclays: Turning up the Heat

Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales - European Financials AC (44-20) 7134-0355 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 12 July 2026

Gigi Sparling

+44 207 134 0355

ghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com

Use the links below to jump straight to each section:

Ideas for Next Week

Quotes of the week

Weekend Newsflow

Charts of the Week

Feedback and Flows

Movers & Shakers

Research Highlights

Save the Date: J.P. Morgan Events

J.P. Morgan Financials Contacts

Long Barclays: Turning up the heat. Tuesday is expected to be a monster day for the Global IBs – both in terms of the number

of US banks reporting and the numbers themselves. We are expecting very strong trends for the Global IBs under coverage with

Kian and Amit forecasting Equities +21% YoY, FICC +7% YoY in (USD), leading to Markets Revenues +14% YoY. We forecast

IB Fees +24% YoY in 2Q 26 – driven by very strong ECM. As Kian and team have explained here the multiplier effect from

recent IPOs is huge – with secondary trading and financing likely to be a key driver of forward revenues. Whilst the US banks

will absolutely outperform the European banks on revenue trends, we do think Barclays will do well in the IB this quarter – given

its exposure to equities and prime as well as FICC. Even outside of the IB We forecast Barclays UK NII of £2.0bn (+3% q/q) and

US Consumer NII of £0.8bn, with Best Egg and the sale of AA both closing in 2Q. We expect a step-up in distributions with

£750m of buybacks in 2Q (vs £500m 1Q). Overall whilst it’s fair that expectations have climbed for the US banks into the quarter

– expect a positive read for Barclays next week. For anyone trying to navigate Tuesday and stay sane - a very helpful update from