Global Data Watch: Asia: A double whammy of persistent inflation and FX depreciation in EMAX

Research evidence excerpt

Global Data Watch: Asia: A double whammy of persistent inflation and FX depreciation in EMAX

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research

11 July 2026

Global Data Watch: Asia

A double whammy of persistent inflation and FX

depreciation in EMAX

EMAX: A double whammy of persistent inflation and FX depreciation Emerging Markets Asia, Economic

and Policy Research

Headline inflation printed mixed in June - accelerating in Taiwan but softening Sajjid Z Chinoy

across ASEAN - yet core inflation picked up universally, as lagged cost pass- (91-22) 6157-3386

throughs broadened underlying price pressures. While lower house oil price sajjid.z.chinoy@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Mumbai Branch

assumptions prompted downward CPI revisions for Thailand and the Philippines

this week, the trajectory remains on a firm upward trend in 2H26. The rebound in Anusha Mital

(91-22) 6157-4113

crude oil prices and the ongoing FX vulnerability add to inflation risks at the start anusha.mital@jpmchase.com

of 2H. Asian currencies broadly depreciated against the USD this week, with the J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

IDR and THB leading the cumulative decline since the June FOMC, a dynamic that

threatens to exacerbate imported inflation concerns.

Research Notes

This dual shock of persistent inflation and FX depreciation will catalyze further Philippines: Crude relief to the current account

monetary tightening through 2H26. Anchored by Korea's growth outperformance,

Taiwan: Tech-led tax windfall creates fiscal

we expect the BOK to initiate a 100bp tightening cycle next week with a 25bp hike headroom

to 2.75%. Similarly, we expect the BSP to counter lingering inflation risks with

three consecutive 25bp hikes; this brings cumulative tightening to 125bp for a