Global Data Watch

Research evidence excerpt

Global Data Watch

t rates and market stability. Going

possible in September. In contrast, we still expect the CNB to

forward, markets will focus on whether the administration’s

hike again in August to 4% given strong demand, rapid wage

recent communications are matched by substantive policy

growth, and booming credit.

actions that promote macroeconomic stability.

French budget meets politics

China in search of sustainable growth

With the prospect of a ban gone, Marine Le Pen announced

Next week’s China releases are expected to reinforce our core

this week that she will be a candidate for the fourth time in

outlook view: Growth is set to stabilize after a substantial

the April 18, 2027, presidential election. The polls show the

2Q26 downshift but remain on external demand. We look for

National Rally candidate leading in the first round by a wide

2Q26 real GDP to downshift to a 3.3%ar (4.7%oya), as early

margin and also winning in a second round. These polls

year policy supports fade. The June data should show a

should be taken with caution, however, as it remains unclear

rebound in IP (0.5%m/m) supported by export gains, along-

who Le Pen would face. These polls also suggest it would be

side lackluster growth in retail spending and continued weak-

harder to win against a right-wing candidate. The National

ness in housing and other investments.

Rally agenda is likely to be similar to 2024. The agenda,

combined with lower taxes and a lower retirement age,

China’s imbalance, reflected in its record-setting current among other proposals, is adding pressure to public finances.

account surplus, also underlies the deflationary impulse After the summer, election campaigning will collide with the

sweeping the domestic economy. This week’s softer CPI and 2027 budget bill.