Global Fixed Income Markets Weekly: Tactically long European duration outright and vs. US

Research evidence excerpt

Global Fixed Income Markets Weekly: Tactically long European duration outright and vs. US

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

10 July 2026

Global Fixed Income Markets

Weekly

Tactically long European duration outright and vs. US

Rates Strategy

Francis Diamond AC

(44-20) 7134-1504

francis.diamond@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• Overview: A re-escalation of US-Iran tensions has brought energy prices/ Aditya(44-20) 7134-2132Chordia

inflation concerns back into focus this week, leading to a sharp sell-off across aditya.x.chordia@jpmorgan.com

DM towards the top of the recent trading ranges. With upside tail risk events J.P. Morgan Securities plc

in energy markets appearing contained and limiting the risk of a further Khagendra Gupta

substantial sell-off, we entered tactical longs in 10Y Bund and 10Y gilts. On (44-20) 7134-0486

our long-term macro valuations model, 5Yx5Y USD and EUR OIS yields are khagendra.x.gupta@jpmorgan.com

screening fair while GBP is cheap, likely reflecting some premium in GBP J.P. Morgan Securities plc

intermediate rates owing to the medium term political/fiscal uncertainty. The Ben K Jarman

1Yx1Y/5Y5Y GBP curve also screens too steep vs. front-end yields, (61-2) 9003-7982

supporting our bullish duration view on intermediates. On a cross-market ben.k.jarman@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

basis, intermediate US yields are still screening modestly rich vs. several other

Takafumi Yamawaki

DMs once we adjust for relative monetary policy expectations. We also stay

(81-3) 6736-1748

long 10Y Germany vs. US. We provide an update on foreign reserve managers takafumi.yamawaki@jpmorgan.com

flows in 1Q26 following the recent IMF COFER data release. JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.