The J.P. Morgan View: Resilience with Tail Risks: Fragile Risk-on, Funding & Crowding Matter, Carry Works

Research evidence excerpt

The J.P. Morgan View: Resilience with Tail Risks: Fragile Risk-on, Funding & Crowding Matter, Carry Works

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

10 July 2026

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The J.P. Morgan View

Resilience with Tail Risks: Fragile Risk-on, Funding &

Crowding Matter, Carry Works

Cross Asset Strategy

Fabio Bassi AC

(44-20) 7134-1989

fabio.bassi@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• The resilient growth outlook paired with patient central banks is solidifying Dubravko(1-212) 622-3601Lakos-Bujas

as the consensus macro and markets narrative following the MOU dubravko.lakos-bujas@jpmorgan.com

agreement. Still, uncertainty lingers, as a renewed regional flare-up and/or J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

a potential breakdown in US-Iran negotiations remain key concerns, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou

threatening to drive oil prices higher and further depress flows through the (44-20) 7134-7815

Strait of Hormuz. nikolaos.panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com

• The macro outlook remains resilient: June's services PMI rebounded Mika Inkinen

enough to offset the softer manufacturing print, leaving the global

(44-20) 7742 6565

composite PMI consistent with global GDP expanding at a 2.7% pace mika.j.inkinen@jpmorgan.com

(above our 2Q and 3Q forecast of 2.3% ar), while the US June payroll report J.P. Morgan Securities plc

confirmed a broadly healthy labour market, removing upside inflation Jainik Mody, CFA

risks and allowing the Fed to be patient and look through the recent upside (44-20) 3493-0443

in core PCE.