US Fixed Income Overview: Silence of the lambs

Research evidence excerpt

US Fixed Income Overview: Silence of the lambs

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

10 July 2026

US Fixed Income Overview

Silence of the lambs

Fixed Income Strategy

Jay Barry AC

(1-212) 834-4951

john.f.barry@jpmorgan.com

Molly Herckis

• VOTE: The Extel 2026 Global Fixed Income Research Survey is here! Please (1-212)molly.herckis@jpmchase.com622-0899

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Liam L Wash

• Econ: We anticipate headline CPI to have declined -0.20% and core CPI to rise (1-212) 834-5230

0.22% m/m in June liam.wash@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• Treasuries: We may be entering an era of Fed communications where

disagreements happen more frequently, but rarely spill into the public eye,

leaving markets to focus more intensely on what little communication still

exists, and to debate more widely the significance of any given data point for

the Fed’s thinking. We continue to believe that the balance sheet and

communications task forces could be the most impactful for the Treasury

market over the medium term. Hold 10s/30s flatteners as a low-beta way to

express our bearish view. Maintain 1Yx1Y/2Yx3Y inflation swap curve

flatteners

• Interest Rate Derivatives: We recommend patience before initiating swap

spread widening exposure for a few reasons; banks are likely to post AOCI

losses again this quarter, financials issuance could pick up (which could get

swapped), and we expect firmer repo levels

• Short Duration: We continue to expect funding conditions to firm from

current levels. We favor staying short the August SOFR/FF basis contract

(SERFFQ6) with an entry point of -1.5bp

• Securitized Products: We turn neutral on MBS 15yr 2s, while 2.5s still look

fundamentally richer. US home prices are growing slowly, and housing