United States: North America Economic Research

Research evidence excerpt

United States: North America Economic Research

Michael Feroli (1-212) 834-5523 Abiel Reinhart (1-617) 712 9122 North America Economic Research J P M O R G A Nmichael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.com abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 10 July 2026

Michael S Hanson (1-212) 622-8603 Bennett Parrish (1-212) 622-9003

michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.com bennett.parrish@jpmchase.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

United States three—saw a case for hiking at the June meeting, but support-

ed the Committee’s decision to hold. Several indicated policy

• Federal Reserve task force leaders tend to align with was not currently restrictive in their view; a few thought it

Chair Warsh’s stated preferences... slightly restrictive. The heretofore typical risk assessment dis-

cussion was replaced by a brief consideration of scenarios.

• … though implementation of any recommendations Unsurprisingly, most thought policy could be maintained, or

will require broader buy-in on the FOMC

even lowered, if inflation soon abated; nearly an equal num-

• Upcoming data releases provide an opportunity to ber thought policy should be tightened if inflation remained

clarify 2Q growth and take stock of 2H outlook elevated. No timeline for this assessment was given.

• Next week’s forecasts: Headline CPI -0.2%m/m, core

0.2%, and control retail sales 0.4% Participants reportedly generally thought upside inflation

risks remained elevated, whereas downside risks to the labor

This week was fairly quiet on the data front, sitting between market had abated somewhat. There also was more discussion

last week’s employment report and next week’s trifecta of about how the AI investment boom represented an upside risk

inflation releases.