EM Edge Data Watch: The remittance bulwark is holding

Research evidence excerpt

EM Edge Data Watch: The remittance bulwark is holding

J P M O R G A N Europe Economic Research

10 July 2026

EM Edge Data Watch

The remittance bulwark is holding

EM, Economic and Policy Research

Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc

(44 20) 7742-2466

nicolaie.alexandru@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• Concern about remittances in 1H26 due to Iran war and US policies Katherine(1-212) 834-2285Marney

katherine.v.marney@jpmorgan.com• But the bulwark is holding, as flows normalize to Asia and MENA

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• Latam flows have held up, while remittance growth in Europe slows Juan Goldin

• Also Egypt’s CBE stays on hold and Ukraine war (57 601) 869 8746

juan.goldin@jpmchase.com

Workers’ remittances are the bulwark of external accounts for many frontier BANCO J.P. MORGAN COLOMBIA S.A

economies. They remain the main (and most stable) source of foreign exchange even

for countries where local bond markets are advanced (like Egypt). Remittances are

particularly relevant in countries where export bases are less diversified or commodity The EM Edge Data Watch weekly is our flagship publication providing in-depth coverage of 34

dependent, and FDI inflows relatively low. Remittance flows have proven resilient economies not included in our Global Data Watch.

over the last five years. GCC-sourced remittance flows, that benefit parts of Asia, The EM Edge universe is far from unified and

includes countries with widely varying per capita

Middle East and Africa, have risen amid a diversification push to develop the non-oil GDP levels, economic structures and policy

sector but are likely to remain flat given the new geopolitical reality. The continued frameworks.

growth of US-sourced remittances (mainly to Latin America) has been more of a

surprise.