Mexico

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico

Gabriel Lozano (52-55) 5540-9558 Latin America Economic Research J P M O R G A Ngabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P.Morgan, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, J.P.Morgan Grupo Financiero 10 July 2026

Santiago Homberg Saury (52-55) 5540-9499

santiago.hombergsaury@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P. Morgan Grupo Financiero

Mexico Within non-core, the driver was once again the unwinding of

the supply-side shock that lifted volatile agricultural prices,

• Benign inflation in June to empower the resumption of and likely ended this week as prices normalized. Livestock

dovish guidance from Banxico and energy prices also moved lower.

• Minutes confirmed the dovish bias but the balance of Delving into the core index, the driver of our miss was servic- risks suggests an “on-hold” stance to prevail

es, which was flat over the fortnight. What kept services

• Domestic demand confirms 2Q rebound in the offing, down was a reversal of the increase in airfares and tourism-

but too soon to confirm an investment revival services prices seen in the 1H of June. The softness in servic-

• May IP cooled after a strong April, led by weaker con- es extended beyond the more volatile tourism items, with our

struction trimmed “Other services” tracker showing a modest increase.

Goods inflation was also lower than expected, in part due to a

This week, we revised down our year-end inflation forecasts decline in non-food goods which remain anchored on the

by one tenth to 4.0% (headline) and 3.9% (core). The revision back of a steady currency and this time benefited from auto-

came as June CPI surprised and declined by 0.27%m/m, leav- sector discounts given seasonal retooling.

ing its annual gauge at 3.37%oya. The print was driven by a