Credit Market Outlook & Strategy: Summer issuance: Always a chance of thunderstorms

Research evidence excerpt

Credit Market Outlook & Strategy: Summer issuance: Always a chance of thunderstorms

J P M O R G A N North America Credit Research

10 July 2026

Credit Market Outlook & Strategy

Summer issuance: Always a chance of thunderstorms

North America Corporate Credit -

Investment Grade Strategy

Nathaniel Rosenbaum, CFA AC

(1-212) 834-2370

nathaniel.rosenbaum@jpmorgan.com

• HG spreads are drifting wider, with JULI hovering around 90bp or 2bp wider Silvi Mantri

WTD with the resilience driven primarily by higher all-in yields from renewed (1-212) 834-7239

silvi.mantri@jpmchase.com

Iran tumult that has brought JULI yields back to 5.62% or the highest since J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

mid-May. Investors were clearly very surprised by the unusually large $51bn

of supply this week as hyperscaler issuance is popping up in what had

traditonally been a very quiet period. With an additional $24.2bn of Amazon

debt entering the index this month, AMZN will surpass ORCL to become the

largest Non-Financial issuer with market value of $108bn or 1.2% of the index.

Between this issuance and S&P’s downgrade of Oracle yesterday to BBB-,

investors are understandably skittish around hyperscalers and questioning

whether some parts of the investor base are getting closer to single-issuer risk

limits. Dealer inventories have climbed to their highest levels of the year, with

dealers acting as net buyers every day this week. That said, despite these supply

headwinds, demand remains healthy with IG funds still attracting a solid

$10.5bn of inflows this week, benefiting from quarter-end rebalance flows.

• The broader Q2 earnings picture looks very strong, with consensus

expectations for another quarter of >20% earnings growth. Bank earnings will