Canada

Research evidence excerpt

Canada

war that may already be behind us—evenAlthough the ceasefire remains shaky and the risk of further

taking into account the uncertain ceasefire. Business senti-escalation remains, upside inflation risks now appear to be

ment slipped to its lowest level in a year, on expectations ofless of a concern relative to the BoC’s assessment in June.

weaker activity and higher prices (Figure 2). While sentimentBut even as the risks from the Middle East have waned, those

among oil producers rose, that did not offset weakness else-from the US trade war have, if anything, intensified. That

where in the economy. Meanwhile, firms’ price expectationsshould weigh further on investment and hiring decisions.

rose markedly, although that may be a bit backward lookingWith these shifts in risk assessments updated in next week’s

as oil prices have declined sharply from earlier highs.Monetary Policy Report, we do not expect the BoC’s tone to

suggest a shift from its current on-hold stance.

Figure 2: Business Outlook Survey Indicators

Standardized units

June jobs: solid but still showing slack

Details of the jobs report were mixed. While the unemploy- 2

Prices

ment rate has now declined four-tenths over the past two 1

months, at 6.5%, it remains above most estimates of full 0

employment (which tend to be at or below 6%). Nearly all of -1

the June job growth was in part-time work. Moreover, a large -2 Activity

(-30.5k) drop in public sector employees nearly overwhelmed -3

the monthly gains among private sector employees; a jump in -4

self-employment made up the difference. Somewhat more 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

encouragingly, the job finding rate rose to 24.3%, 3%-pts Source: BoC, J.P. Morgan

above its year-ago value. The layoff rate held steady at 9%.