Latin America Economic Research

Research evidence excerpt

Latin America Economic Research

Vinicius Moreira (55-11) 4950-3195 Gustavo Ribeiro (55-11) 4950-4059 Latin America Economic Research J P M O R G A Nvinicius.moreira@jpmorgan.com gustavo.ribeiro@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A. Banco J.P. Morgan S.A. 10 July 2026

Mirella Sampaio (55-11) 4950-3289

mirella.sampaio@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

Brazil convention, expected to be July 25, is set to formalize Flávio

Bolsonaro’s presidential candidacy, and the PT convention,

• Political and fiscal calendars to remain in the fore expected to be August 2, is set to nominate President Lula for

reelection. Usually, these dates matter less as discrete events

• In July, focus on Congressional discussion; in August than as coordinated nodes that crystallize alliances, VP choic-

the electoral race formally starts

es, and the initial contours of campaign platforms.

• Next week: decelerating economic activity

The latest polling, in our view, still does not point to a mean-

• With soft CPI readings, the BCB will keep on cutting ingful change relative to the broader picture seen in recent

months. There has been some incremental strengthening inJuly is an important month for Brazil’s fiscal, political, and

President Lula’s position, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro stillelectoral debates, as three calendars collide.

the main runner-up in the scenarios that have anchored the

On the political front, July often splits into two phases. The public debate (Figure 1). While the current snapshot looks

first two weeks tend to focus on legislative bargaining and more favorable for reelection, high rejection rates should

agenda-setting, while the second half of the month typically keep the race competitive throughout the cycle.

pivots toward a formal congressional recess — conditional on