FX Markets Weekly: Keep calm and carry on

Research evidence excerpt

FX Markets Weekly: Keep calm and carry on

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

10 July 2026

FX Markets Weekly

Keep calm and carry on

Global FX Strategy

Meera Chandan AC

(44-20) 7134-2924

meera.chandan@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Arindam Sandilya ACOutlook: Despite this week’s Middle East flare-up, we view the bar for a Strait closure

(65) 6882-7759

and return to Q2 war-peak conditions as high. Even so, our bullish dollar, bullish carry arindam.x.sandilya@jpmorgan.com

portfolio orientation financed via energy importing low-yielders is well placed to JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch

absorb another inflationary geopolitical shock. The AI and global capex upcycle Patrick R Locke

remains intact through the ongoing volatility in tech stocks, and the absence of (1-212) 834-4254

German fiscal optimism is a meaningful headwind to any US-to-Europe equity patrick.r.locke@jpmchase.com

rotation accompanying sectoral churn and broadening out equity strength. Japanese J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

FM Katayama's GPIF comments suggest political intent to redirect purchases towards Ladislav Jankovic

JGBs and tame Yen weakness, but is ultimately a one-off flow comparable in size to (1-212) 834-9618

the April-May intervention if the basic portfolio allocations stay unchanged, which is ladislav.jankovic@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

insufficient to reverse structural yen depreciation.

James Nelligan

Macro Trade Recommendations: Stay long carry; long dollars vs low-yielder cash (44-20) 3493-6829

basket (NZD, CAD, SEK, CHF, EUR) and short CHF vs pro-cyclical carry basket james.nelligan@jpmorgan.com

(AUD, USD, ZAR, HUF). Short CAD/MXN. Long GBP vs EUR, SEK, CHF basket.

Anezka ChristovovaShort SEK vs EUR, AUD in cash & vs NOK in options.

(44-20) 7742-2630