Central Europe

Research evidence excerpt

Central Europe

Jose Cerveira (44-20) 7742-3556 Europe Economic Research J P M O R G A Njose.a.cerveira@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 10 July 2026

Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc (44 20) 7742-2466

nicolaie.alexandru@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Figure 1: Monetary policy through liquidity managementCentral Europe

%

8.0

• Romania: NBR on hold at 6.50% and showing a slight 7.5 1W implied dovish bias

7.0

3M ROBOR

• Poland: NBP signals it could cut rates as early as Sep- 6.5

tember 6.0

5.5

• Czech Republic: Inflation drops but headline remains 5.0

elevated 4.5 1W ROBOR

• Hungary: Low inflation to reinforce NBH’s near-term 4.0

easing conviction Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jul-26

Source: NBR, JP Morgan

Romania: on hold, but mild dovish tone

Poland: NBP signals possible cut in Sep-

As widely expected, the NBR kept the key rate unchanged at tember

6.50%; other policy parameters - liquidity management and

the required reserve ratios - also remained unchanged. As The NBP’s rate decision this week proved far more interest-

usual, there was no forward guidance in the statement, but the ing than expected. Although the MPC delivered the widely

NBR now appears more confident in disinflation, likely anticipated decision to keep rates unchanged at 5.25%, it

helped by lower Brent prices and base effects. The NBR con- caught markets off guard with a remarkably transparent signal

tinues to see sharp disinflation during 3Q26, largely as elec- that a rate cut could come as early as September, despite pub-

tricity prices saw a sharp increase in July 2025 and VAT and lishing an upwardly revised inflation forecast at the same

excise were hiked in August 2025. The NBR also highlights meeting. The NBP now projects inflation to reach 2.85%oya