Canada: Solid June jobs report won’t jolt BoC

Research evidence excerpt

Canada: Solid June jobs report won’t jolt BoC

J P M O R G A N North America Economic Research

10 July 2026

Canada: Solid June jobs report

won’t jolt BoC

Economic and Policy Research

Michael S Hanson

(1-212) 622-8603

michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.com

Bennett Parrish

• Employment rose a further 18.2k in June after surging 87.8k in May (1-212)bennett.parrish@jpmchase.com622-9003

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA• Job gains were largely confined to a 17.5k rise in part-time workers

• The unemployment rate eased a tenth to 6.5%, down 0.4% since April

• Wage growth firmed slightly, we don't see this report as convincing the

BoC to pivot in the hawkish direction still priced by markets

The June Labour Force Survey delivered a relatively solid follow-up to May’s

remarkably strong report. Total employment rose by 18.2k, adding to the 87.8k

surge in May. After averaging -32k in 1Q, job growth has rebounded in 2Q to

average +29k. The unemployment rate eased a tenth to 6.5%, matching its lowest

level since January. But the labor market continues to experience excess supply,

and some details of the report were less positive. Moreover, the 2Q Business

Outlook Survey pointed to weak employment intentions among Canadian firms.

Thus, even as this month’s news should be welcome, we do not expect the Bank

of Canada to meaningfully pivot its policy communications on the back of this

report—especially with oil prices materially lower than earlier peaks.

While job gains were solid in June, the composition was less encouraging as nearly

all of the job growth was in part-time positions (+17.5k); full time employment was

essentially flat (+0.6k). The industry breakdown also highlighted the mixed nature

of the June report, as goods-producing industries showed renewed weakness. The