FX Technical Update: Dollar‘s breakout rally pauses but the broader bull trend remains intact

Research evidence excerpt

FX Technical Update: Dollar‘s breakout rally pauses but the broader bull trend remains intact

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

10 July 2026

FX Technical Update

Dollar's breakout rally pauses but the broader bull trend

remains intact

Technical Strategy

Jason Hunter AC

(1-212) 270-0034

jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

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• The recent DXY Index weakness looks like a corrective pullback following the

late-June yearlong base pattern breakout. Key short-term support rests at

100.03-100.205 and the 50-day moving average, which is trending into that

area.

• EUR/USD has staged a short-term rebound from the 1.134 Feb 2025 38.2%

retracement level and other nearby support, but the chart lacks a clear bullish

reversal pattern. In our view, the broader trend bias remains negative while

below the 1.15-1.1525 resistance zone and the nearby 50-day moving average

(1.156). The broader setup keeps the pair on course for a drop to medium-term

support at 1.1065-1.1185.