Brazil weekly: Calendar collision

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil weekly: Calendar collision

AmericaBanco J.P. Morgan S.A. Latin Economic Research J P M O R G A N 10 July 2026Vinicius Moreira

(55-11) 4950-3195

vinicius.moreira@jpmorgan.com

The electoral calendar also becomes more binding at the start of July. July 4 effectively

formalized the 90-day countdown to the first-round vote and to activating restrictions aimed

at reducing the asymmetry between incumbents seeking reelection and challengers running

for new offices. A second critical window runs from July 20 to August 5, when parties hold

conventions to endorse tickets and candidacies to be registered with the electoral court (TSE)

by August 15. The PL convention, expected to be July 25, is set to formalize Flávio

Bolsonaro’s presidential candidacy, and the PT convention, expected to be August 2, is set

to nominate President Lula for reelection. Usually, these dates matter less as discrete events

than as coordinated nodes that crystallize alliances, VP choices, and the initial contours of

campaign platforms.

The latest polling, in our view, still does not point to a meaningful change relative to the

broader picture seen in recent months. There has been some incremental strengthening in

President Lula’s position, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro still the main runner-up in the

scenarios that have anchored the public debate (Figure 1). While the current snapshot looks

more favorable for reelection, high rejection rates should keep the race competitive

throughout the cycle.

Figure 1: Runoff vote intention

% of the total votes, aggregated from various polls

F. Bolsonaro

Lula

None or undecided

Jun-25 Aug-25 Oct-25 Dec-25 Feb-26 Apr-26 Jun-26

Source: JOTA and J.P. Morgan

The macro-fiscal challenge will remain regardless of who wins. The budget guidelines