Brazil: Exposure to Russia‘s fuel

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil: Exposure to Russia‘s fuel

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

10 July 2026

Brazil

Exposure to Russia’s fuel

Our Commodities Research team has highlighted the challenges in global refining, EM, Economic and Policy Research

particularly the role of Russia. While Brazil is a net energy exporter, the country Vinicius Moreira

remains a net importer of refined fuels, with meaningful exposure to Russian (55-11) 4950-3195

products. About 30% of imported gasoline and almost 50% of imported diesel vinicius.moreira@jpmorgan.com

come from Russia (Figures 1 and 2). Currently, around 8.5% of the gasoline Mirella Sampaio

consumed in Brazil is imported and around 25% of the diesel is imported. As a (55-11) 4950-3289

result, we estimate that about 2.5% of Brazil’s domestic gasoline consumption mirella.sampaio@jpmorgan.com

depends on Russian imports, while almost 12% of its diesel needs are supplied by Gustavo Ribeiro

Russia (Figure 3). These imports are distributed throughout the year, with a slightly (55-11) 4950-4059

gustavo.ribeiro@jpmorgan.com

higher concentration in the second half (Figure 4).

Milene Clifford Carvalho

(55-11) 4950-3475

In this context, we see the recent Russian export ban (along with ongoing capacity milene.carvalho@jpmorgan.com

disruptions) as an additional source of pressure on global fuel supply. In our view, Henrique Cunha, CFA

the tightening in global refining capacity would primarily manifest as continued (55 11) 4950 3623

upward pressure on domestic fuel prices (Figure 5). This year, however, those henrique.r.cunha@jpmorgan.com

pressures are not fully reaching the final consumer, with only secondary effects on Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

inflation through higher global goods prices, because the government has been