US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

Three main themes this week and what to watch for the next week:

• Another escalation in the US-Iran situation, but market reaction suggests that the worst-case scenario

has been avoided. Less than a month into the initial 60-day MoU deal between the US and Iran, we

saw renewed escalation, with WTI up 4.9% so far this week. Throughout the week, we have seen the

headlines become quieter and receive less market attention, as the tone from the White House has

remained positive on continued negotiations between the two countries. On the other hand, recent

Russia-Ukraine developments may point to particular pressure on refining capacity; see below for

views from International Market Intelligence.

• A 12% drawdown in Momentum (JPMPURE), before reversing higher by 3.5% over the past two

days. We have seen a pullback in Momentum with notable pressure on Semis and Memory as we

started to see some narrative shift in the Mag 7 since META’s cloud business announcement, though

we continue to view the recent pullback as more positioning driven (both Semis and Memory have

been around the 95th to 100th percentile over the past two days). However, this points to a greater

focus on guidance and strategic announcements for the upcoming earnings cycle, particularly from

the hyperscalers.

• Anticipation of Q2 earnings (GSIB banks, TSMC, ASML; see preview below) and an eventful week of

CPI and Retail Sales next week.

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS

• RU/UKRAINE DEVELOPMENT – Our colleagues from the International Market Intelligence shared

the following: “NATO commentary indicate Trump is more supportive of Ukraine escalating attacks

and is considering allowing Ukraine to manufacture Patriot missiles.