US Auto Suppliers: Updated Thoughts and 2Q26 EPS Preview: Risk-Reward Balanced as Bar Higher; Focus on GoM Visibility (inc. Non-Auto), Commodities/DRAM, and Capital Return; Stay Selective

Research evidence excerpt

US Auto Suppliers: Updated Thoughts and 2Q26 EPS Preview: Risk-Reward Balanced as Bar Higher; Focus on GoM Visibility (inc. Non-Auto), Commodities/DRAM, and Capital Return; Stay Selective

Rajat Gupta AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-6382 10 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

rajat.gupta@jpmorgan.com

• Estimate changes and relative to consensus. We make modest changes to our

2Q26/2026/2027 EBITDA estimates with the average 2Q26 EBITDA raised by +1% &

2026/2027 largely flat. Relative to consensus, our 2Q26/2026 EBITDA estimates are up

+1%, while 2027 remain roughly inline.

• Intra-quarter commentary and checks across the auto supplier coverage (click here

for takeaways) point to steady trends. Production is tracking broadly stable to modestly

improving, with only localized softness in China, and management teams largely view

Mobilty Global’s downward for 2H26/2027 as overly conservative and not visible in

production schedule and customer discussions yet. Several suppliers characterize

standing full year guides as embedding conservatism should the macro hold, consistent

with the posture during 1Q26 EPS season (click here for 1Q26 wrap note). The unifying

message is controllable levers, strong award/backlog momentum and restructuring,

layered on top of ICE proving stickier than feared, all framed as the bridge to a step up

in GoM into 2027-2028. Commodities and DRAM remain shared swing factors with

lagged recoveries, and recent OEM agreements suggest a race to lock in supply.

Uncertainty remains on the eventual USMCA path, though suppliers generally expressed

confidence in ability to navigate given supplier plant proximity and diversified footprint.

• A recurring theme continues to be the pivot into higher margin, capital-light non-