High Yield Energy: Natural Gas Model Book Update

Research evidence excerpt

High Yield Energy: Natural Gas Model Book Update

J P M O R G A N North America Credit Research

10 July 2026

High Yield Energy

Natural Gas Model Book Update

Tarek Hamid AC

(1-212) 834-5468

tarek.x.hamid@jpmorgan.com

Aaron Rosenthal, CFA

• You’re killin’ me, Smalls! While crude oil went on a wild Iran-conflict driven (1-212)aaron.rosenthal@jpmorgan.com270-4584

ride, the natural gas market was fairly muted during the second quarter.

Nevin Mathew NYMEX front-month pricing reached as low as $2.52/mmbtu during the

(1-212) 834-5714

quarter, and we have seen 2026 strip pricing trend lower from $3.66/mmbtu at nevin.mathew@jpmchase.com

the beginning of the year to just $3.16/mmbtu now. The curve looks fairly low

Elle Boyd

for most of the back half of the year as well. This near-term cap on natural gas (1-212) 270-7283

prices is largely a timing issue in our view. The primary drivers of structural elle.boyd@jpmchase.com

demand growth for the US natural gas market have been the buildout of LNG J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

infrastructure and data center driven load growth. The construction of both are

multi-year processes, and it is unlikely that we see meaningful incremental

capacity come online before next year. However, the supply side of the

equation hasn’t been delayed and has been growing, particularly in the Contents

Haynesville and Permian basins. Current pricing should modestly

1Q26 Hedge Position Summary 2

disincentivize Haynesville growth, but with sizable incremental LNG volumes Natural Gas Relative Value 5

likely in 2027 producers are unlikely to be “too cute” with their production Corporate Commodity Price Sensitivities 6

programs. HY Natural Gas E&P Breakevens 8

Appalachian E&P Takeaway Cheat Sheet 9

• Heroes get remembered but legends never die.