Transportation & Logistics: 2Q26 Preview: Bumps in the Road Ahead, No Clear Signs of a Cycle Peak Yet

Research evidence excerpt

Transportation & Logistics: 2Q26 Preview: Bumps in the Road Ahead, No Clear Signs of a Cycle Peak Yet

Summer Speaker Series: Five Key Takeaways from Nine Expert Calls

Supply-led capacity reset will be tough to reverse

◼DAT estimates ~5% of TL capacity has been permanently removed through regulatory and enforcement actions

◼Enforcement has stepped up but remains uneven, leaving some room for actors to operate aggressively or illegally

◼Less sophisticated shippers could misread the cycle as demand-driven and underestimate its durability

Driver scarcity already becoming a problem

◼Large carriers finding it much harder to hire drivers and need to offer pay increases and sign-on bonuses

◼Economics increasingly favor becoming an independent owner-operator over remaining leased on to a fleet

◼Drayage is an emerging pressure point after the market sharply tightened starting in late May/early June

Freight rate outlook skewed to the upside

◼DAT’s near-term spot forecast calls for dry van rates +LSD sequentially through year-end, assuming demand holds

◼Once-aggressive +45% YoY year-end spot call from Chris Pickett now looks conservative with +60% well within reach

◼Contract renewals are running hotter than shippers anticipated, with new dry van rates ex-fuel +5.4% above expiring rates

◼MIT’s Pulse Signal Report projects dry van contract rates up ~+18% YoY by May 2027

Intermodal conversion building, watching for drayage constraint

◼DAT’s truckload-to-intermodal conversion data showing early signs that shippers are shifting loads to rail

◼Conversion decisions hinge on capacity, transit time, reliability, and price with many shippers still sticking with trucking for now

◼Lack of reliable drayage capacity could slow down intermodal conversion, echoing the 2022 chassis shortage