Transportation & Logistics: Weekly Fast Track: 2Q26 Earnings Preview Recap, Week 1 Look Ahead, New NRF Import Estimates

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Transportation & Logistics: Weekly Fast Track: 2Q26 Earnings Preview Recap, Week 1 Look Ahead, New NRF Import Estimates

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

10 July 2026

Transportation & Logistics

Weekly Fast Track: 2Q26 Earnings Preview Recap,

Week 1 Look Ahead, New NRF Import Estimates

This weekly publication highlights current transports and logistics trends across a Airfreight & Surface Transportation /

wide range of truckload, intermodal, LTL, ocean, and airfreight market metrics. Shipping

The rail section also includes a report card that simplifies how the network is Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC

performing relative to history and peers while also tracking carload trends versus (1-212) 622-1023

consensus expectations. brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com

Grady Carr

Key topics of the week: 2Q26 Preview & new NRF forecasts. This week we (1-212) 622-1251

grady.carr@jpmchase.com

published our 2Q26 Preview, which included a favorable call on the LTLs, where

Brandon Wexlerdemand accelerated in June on rising truckload spillover and certain carriers are

(1-212) 622-1956

becoming capacity constrained. We believe this dynamic will outweigh potential brandon.wexler@jpmchase.com

headwinds from fading fuel surcharges, particularly as FedEx Freight signals a J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

renewed focus on yields, which we believe could be a positive for TFII and XPO.

We are avoiding JBHT as the 2Q volume bar looks too high for consensus at +5.5%

YoY with some expectations reaching double-digits while intermodal pricing

continues to lag truckload rates. We would also steer clear of the Eastern Rails,

where strong volumes are offset by service deterioration and labor difficulties at

both CSX and NSC. The pick-up in import activity over the past two months,