China Property: Positive View: Position for a Stronger Volume Growth in Core Cities

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China Property: Positive View: Position for a Stronger Volume Growth in Core Cities

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10 Jul 2026 05:04:02 ET │ 12 pages

China Property

Positive View: Position for a Stronger Volume Growth in Core Cities

CITI'S TAKE

Griffin Chan AC

Position for sales growth and pickup in launches from Sep; look through +852-2501-2438

weak 1H earnings — Our constructive sector view is backed by (1) likely griffin.chan@citi.com

accelerating sales growth in Jul-Sep on resilient transaction volumes in core

cities and a favorable low base; (2) a stronger new launch pipeline from Sep; Cindy Li

(3) expectation for a supportive tone from July’s Politburo meeting. Despite +852-2501-2710

the recent sector share price retreat, physical market activity remains firm, cindy.li@citi.com

with primary/secondary transaction units in key cities increasing 18%/12%

yoy in the first week of July. We believe 1H26 earnings weakness is widely

expected by the market, while guidance on sales & margin could also be

supportive. As such, we think the sector is well prepared for a bull run in Jul-

Oct. Our updated top picks are: CRL, C&D, Beike, Jinmao & COLI. We turned

more positive on C&D from Jun after its product upgrades & accelerated

landbanking.

Primary & secondary volume gaining strength in July — Secondary volume in the

first week of July rose 12%yoy across 18 cities (WIND), led by tier-1 cities +21%yoy,

and listings down 0.1%wow. The weekly volume of 25.3k units is healthy (6% above

2025 avg) during a typically slow summer season. In the first half of July, volume

+13%yoy at 15 cities (Real Estate Market Calendar), with more than 20%yoy growth

for FS/ NB/ SH/ Suzhou and 10-20% growth for CD/ SZ/ BJ/ DG. Secondary prices

in the 6 core cities continued the mom stabilization trend.