New Jersey Resources: Thoughts into F3Q26: NJNG Rate Case, CEV DG Strategy and S&T Expansion In Focus

Research evidence excerpt

New Jersey Resources: Thoughts into F3Q26: NJNG Rate Case, CEV DG Strategy and S&T Expansion In Focus

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

10 July 2026

New Jersey Resources Overweight

NJR, NJR US

Thoughts into F3Q26: NJNG Rate Case, CEV DG Price (09 Jul 26):$57.88

Strategy and S&T Expansion In Focus ▲Price Target (Dec-27):$64.00 Prior (Dec-26):$61.00

F3Q26 shapes up as a seasonally lighter quarter, with normalized ES contributions

following exceptional winter outperformance in F1Q/F2Q and NJNG delivering North American Utilities

ratable results. Looking ahead, NJNG’s bundled BGSS/CIP/energy efficiency and Eli Jossen, CFA AC

base rate case filing targets recovery of ~$950mm in system investments with an (1-212) 622-4113

8.9% bill reduction. New base rates likely follow the typical 9-12 month cadence eli.jossen@jpmchase.com

across NJR's four prior rate cases, where we see a 9.6% ROE and 54% equity layer Jeremy Tonet, CFA

as a reasonable outcome in spring 2027. CEV reflects a quieter period with the (1-212) 622-4915

jeremy.b.tonet@jpmorgan.com

slow-and-steady capacity lift continuing. S&T delivers another YoY step-up on

Aidan C Kelly

favorable re-contracting at Adelphia and Leaf River, the 5.5 bcf expansion fully

(1-212) 622-4912

contracted toward FY2027 ISD, and the fourth cavern at 12-15 bcf awaiting FID. aidan.x.kelly@jpmchase.com

Key call topics include Leaf River FERC authorization expected by fiscal year- Diana Niles

end, CEV distributed generation strategy evolution against the existing 500MW (1-212) 622-3328

interconnection platform, and the rate case timeline update reinforcing NJR's diana.niles@jpmorgan.com

durable multi-year growth narrative. Weighing the above, we model a $.07 F3Q26 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC