Magnolia Oil & Gas: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Slight Cash Flow Beat; All Eyes on Potential East Texas M&A

Research evidence excerpt

Magnolia Oil & Gas: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Slight Cash Flow Beat; All Eyes on Potential East Texas M&A

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

10 July 2026

Magnolia Oil & Gas Neutral

MGY, MGY US

2Q26 Earnings Preview: Slight Cash Flow Beat; All Price (09 Jul 26):$25.87

Eyes on Potential East Texas M&A ▼Price Target (Dec-26):$29.00 Prior (Dec-26):$32.00

JPM View: We anticipate an in-line operational print from MGY in 2Q26, with our

cash flow estimate ~4% above the STe after marking to market for 2Q commodity Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

prices. We forecast 2Q EPS/CFPS of $0.93/$1.78 and EBITDA of $350 MM, Arun Jayaram AC

which is above the STe at $0.89/$1.71 and $344 MM, respectively. We are (1-212) 622-8541

modeling 2Q oil production of 41.4 MBo/d, which is in-line with the STe at 41.4 arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

MBo/d. Our total production estimate of 104.9 MBoe/d compares to the STe at Pankaj Bhatter, CFA

105.2 MBoe/d and MGY’s 2Q guide of ~105 MBoe/d. We expect MGY to benefit (1-212) 622-3795

pankaj.bhatter@jpmchase.com

from strong oil price realizations this quarter, and model 2Q oil realizations flat vs.

Jack Jerusalmi

MEH at $95.45 per bbl, which represents a $2.65 per bbl premium to benchmark

(1-212) 622-6552

WTI pricing of $92.80 per bbl. Looking ahead, we expect MGY’s oil price jack.jerusalmi@jpmorgan.com

differentials to normalize toward typical levels of ~$3 per bbl below MEH. We J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

model a natural gas price realization of $2.10 per Mcf, which is $0.35 per Mcf off

HSC. On spending, we have slightly increased our 2Q capex estimate to $125 MM

(from $123 MM), which is at the high-end of MGY’s $120–$125 MM guide and Key Changes (FYE Dec)

compares to the STe at $123 MM. Supported by its unhedged profile, we estimate Prev Cur Δ