PBF Energy: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Step Change Inflection Supports Sizeable Beat

Research evidence excerpt

PBF Energy: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Step Change Inflection Supports Sizeable Beat

t import-dependent product markets, while West Coast is near the high-end Q1 (3.09) (0.85)A 2.00

Q2 (1.03) 3.95 2.74

of the range (JPMe at 271 MB/d vs. guide of 250-270 MB/d) on the Martinez Q3 (0.51) 4.76 2.44

restart. We model Mid-Continent below the midpoint (JPMe at 139 MB/d vs. guide Q4 0.49 1.84 1.45

of 145-155 MB/d) reflecting operational issues over the quarter, and Gulf Coast at FY (4.07) 9.89 8.64

the midpoint (JPMe at 181 MB/d); we note a May 8, 2026 process upset and fire

Style Exposure

at Chalmette damaged a pre-treater and brought a reformer unit offline, though the

refinery is operating at previously planned rates and continues to produce gasoline,

diesel and other refined products. We forecast an adjusted gross margin of $18.58

per bbl (vs 1Q26 at $9.53 per bbl) and estimate refining opex of $7.42 per bbl (vs

1Q26 at $8.53 per bbl), reflecting RBI-driven efficiencies, higher throughput

absorbing fixed costs, and the step-down in West Coast opex as Martinez

normalizes. We estimate Logistics operating income of $48 MM flat sequentially,

and expect the midstream segment to generate stable EBITDA going forward. We

estimate that PBF will generate $828 MM in CFO for 2Q26 (pre-working capital

changes), and $908 MM in CFO after adjusting for our estimate of an $80 MM

working capital tailwind during the quarter as the ~$200 MM of derivative related

draw from the prior quarter reverses. Our CFPS estimate of $7.46 compares to the

STe at $6.01. We estimate $193 MM of 2Q26 capex and $715 MM of FCF during

the quarter, with the Martinez rebuild spend now substantially behind the company.

We maintain our Neutral rating and raise our price target on our higher estimates