Sompo Holdings (8630): Organic ROE improvement challenging; awaiting next growth investment

Research evidence excerpt

Sompo Holdings (8630): Organic ROE improvement challenging; awaiting next growth investment

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

10 July 2026

Sompo Holdings (8630) Neutral

8630.T, 8630 JP

Organic ROE improvement challenging; awaiting Price (10 Jul 26):¥6,513

next growth investment ▲Price Target (Dec-27):¥7,000 Prior (Dec-26):¥6,300

We revise our earnings estimates and raise our price target from ¥6,300 to ¥7,000

through December 2027 (previously through December 2026). We remain Japan Equity Research

Neutral. As management stated at the FY2025 full-year results announcement Insurance, Securities, Diversified

regarding the decision not to conduct buybacks for capital level adjustment Financials

purposes — that it would “explore the next growth opportunities in order to quickly AC Koki Sato

catch up to the initial ROE target of 13%” — we believe a meaningful scale of (81-3) 6736-8609

growth investment is needed to lift the ROE level. In July, the company announced koki.sato@jpmorgan.com

the acquisition of a workers’ compensation specialist, but we do not view this as Yuka Azami

large enough to materially lift the profit level, and believe it is still necessary to (81-3) 6736-8619

assess further whether inorganic growth can be achieved. yuka.azami@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

• Earnings model update: We estimate adjusted profit of ¥508.8 billion in

FY2026 (guidance ¥500 billion), ¥542.2 billion in FY2027 (+7% YoY), and

Style Exposure

¥574.4 billion in FY2028 (+6% YoY). Since we assume moderate organic

growth, particularly in the overseas business, including Aspen, we expect the

pace of profit growth to be in the single-digit range. In our model, we also

expect adjusted ROE to remain broadly flat at around 11%.