MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings (8725)

Research evidence excerpt

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings (8725)

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

10 July 2026

MS&AD Insurance Group

Holdings (8725) Neutral

8725.T, 8725 JP

Watch whether synergies can bring relatively strong Price (10 Jul 26):¥4,428

organic growth ▲Price Target (Dec-27):¥5,000 Prior (Dec-26):¥4,500

We revise our earnings model following the company’s transition to IFRS. We raise

our price target from ¥4,500 to ¥5,000 (by December 2027; previously by Japan Equity Research

December 2026) and remain Neutral. Insurance, Securities, Diversified

Financials

• Earnings model update: We estimate adjusted profit (including gains on sales AC

of cross-shareholdings) of ¥832.6 billion in FY2026 (guidance ¥800 billion), Koki Sato

(81-3) 6736-8609

¥887.6 billion (+7% YoY) in FY2027, and ¥830.6 billion (-6% YoY) in koki.sato@jpmorgan.com

FY2028. We expect FY2026 adjusted profit to beat guidance primarily on an

Yuka Azami

overshoot in gains on sales of cross-shareholdings and other factors. We (81-3) 6736-8619

assume gains on sales of cross-shareholdings will be the same in FY2027 as in yuka.azami@jpmorgan.com

FY2026 but then decline in FY2028, so we estimate a decline in adjusted profit JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

including gains on sales of cross-shareholdings. We estimate adjusted profit

excluding gains on sales of cross-shareholdings, which is comparable with

Style Exposure

other P&C insurers, of ¥547 billion (guidance ¥532 billion) in FY2026, ¥601.9

billion (+10% YoY) in FY2027, and ¥659.2 billion (+10%) in FY2028.

• Shareholder returns outlook: We forecast annual DPS hikes of ¥15, starting

from ¥170 in FY2026, in line with guidance. We estimate share buybacks of

¥180 billion in FY2026, ¥190 billion in FY2027, and ¥150 billion in FY2028,