G10 FX

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A N

laoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com G10 FX Daily Report - 10th July

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 2026

10 July 2026

JPY I only wrote this yesterday “GPIF finally put me out of my misery on Friday (there is always

next year!)” so I have found the timing of the red headline *KATAYAMA: TO PROMOTE

INVESTMENT IN JAPAN ASSETS BY GPIF, OTHERS overnight comical but also super

interesting. It is claimed to be independent but the GPIF reports directly to the Ministry of

Health, Labour and Welfare and hence Takaichi so there will be influence. Why announce this

or call upon them publicly? Well this is a long process and they need an immediate signaling

effect, this is borne out of the fact that authorities have simply had enough on the weak yen

especially at these levels – this also fits with the recent consideration of a BoJ policy working

tweaks in the Governments economic blueprint.

The mechanics are that they can deviate the buckets by 6% without an official asset allocation

change so you can do the math on the ~$2trn beast, we will get quarterly updates on said

buckets which are released a month post on the first Friday of next month (so should be 7th

August for end of June), technically they can now change their strategy outside of the 5 year

cycle. I thought this would happen at the end of the fiscal year but our Strategy thinks can

happen at any time but regardless this is not only about the flows from the GPIF it is a broader

signal to the rest of the Japanese real money community and its massive - this signal will start

with basket deviation.

Clearly more to be written and pondered on this but I have sold USDJPY this morning and will

invest in JPY upside. First support is 160.50.