EM FX

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 10 July 2026

RUB Not loads to report as spot traded in a 75.75-76.25 range, closing towards the upper end. Saw

mixed but not terribly significant flows here. Remain a little on the sidelines but still just about

favour buying dollars on dips.

ZAR USDZAR saw a nice correction lower yesterday, with the pair back below 16.30 after trading as

high as 16.4825 on Wednesday. We saw better demand for ZAR yesterday, mainly from real-

money and systematic accounts, and it still feels like the market is happy to fade any outsized

rand weakness here. I’m heading away for a couple of weeks, but stepping back, I still think the

environment looks supportive for EM FX to do well. As such, my bias remains to be long EM

risk, especially if next week’s CPI comes in a bit softer, which could see some of the Fed’s

hawkishness priced out. Good luck.

TRY Price action in TRY remains consistent, with activity close to or at state bank offers (currently

around 46.9850 after the 3 day carry adjustment). Saw some modest local coprorate demand but

nothing exceptional. USDTRY price action remains in line with the expected depreciation path.

Seasonally better current-account dynamics should continue to support TRY in the near term,

while FX deposit data still show no meaningful signs of local retail dollarisation. We therefore

remain long TRY. As long as retail dollarisation stays contained, which remains the case so far,

the FX policy framework should stay intact, with controlled nominal depreciation remaining the

base case.

PLN Glapinski struck a notably dovish tone in his presser yesterday, saying a “rate cut is possible in